Regions: Middle East

Posted on February 13, 2012 by theory

Middle East ScoringMiddle East

In 1946, Truman had to threaten to send warships to the Mediterranean to compel the Soviets to remove troops from Iran. Thus began the Cold War struggle in the Middle East. Since this region provided Western economies with their lifeblood—oil—it also provided the USSR with an irresistible opportunity to meddle. US support for Israel gave the Soviets an opening to the Arab world that they would repeatedly exploit.

Time: Early War
Battlegrounds: 6
Countries: 10

General Considerations

The Middle East is the only region on the board that is consistently biased towards one side throughout the game.  By design, the USSR almost always has the advantage in this region, amplified by the fact that OPEC is a de facto extra Middle East scoring card.  It is quite rare for the US to score Domination: usually the primary goal is simply to prevent a USSR Domination (or worse, Control).

Early War

Four things will define the Middle East in the Early War:

1) The USSR Turn 1 headline: if the USSR can headline Suez Crisis (or Arab-Israeli War with a 50/50 shot), it can knock out the US base in Israel and cut off most US access to the western half of the region.

2) The Iran coup: this almost always goes the way of USSR.  With a Suez Turn 1 headline, the US would be lucky even to get Presence in the Middle East.  If the US is knocked out of Iran but can stay in Israel, the US has a fighting chance to avoid Domination if it can mitigate …

3) Nasser, which really determines the outcome of two Middle East battlegrounds, since Egypt is the only meaningful Early War path to Libya.

4) Also important are Jordan and Lebanon.  Both of them mitigate Arab-Israeli War, and Jordan more importantly is usually the only US route into Iraq/Saudi Arabia.

What usually ends up happening is that the US is out of Iran but finds a way to get presence in the west, either with just Lebanon, or by making its way over to Jordan or Libya.  Occasionally, the US can hang onto Iran and possibly score a quick and dirty Domination if they also take Lebanon.  The flip side of that scenario is that the US loses both Iran and Israel, and is forced to coup in just for Presence.

Either way, the best the US can hope for is usually just escaping the Early War having stopped USSR domination.

Mid War

Muslim Revolution is the great specter looming over the Middle East in the Mid War.  If the US had been counting on Iraq and Saudi Arabia, that’s six seven influence lost and irreparable with a single play.  In addition, if the US had relied on Libya and/or Egypt, there’s a very real possibility the US can’t get back into either country if it has no adjoining influence in Israel or Tunisia.  OPEC just kicks the US while they’re down, essentially equivalent to a Domination scoring for the USSR only.  Accordingly, the US will be desperate to send either or both off to space.

The sole ray of light for the US is Egypt, where Sadat Expels Soviets and Camp David Accords can undo the effect of Nasser.  Since Sadat in particular is a 1Op card, it’s very difficult for the USSR to mitigate or discard on the Space Race, and is therefore almost certain to happen at some point during the Mid War.

Shuttle Diplomacy is generally less helpful than it appears.  The reason is that the USSR typically leads in battlegrounds 4-2, in which case the saved battleground is rather meaningless.  Even if the battlegrounds are split 3-3, Shuttle Diplomacy does not usually give the US domination unless the US has enough countries overall.  It is essentially an uncertain 3VP card at best, and so the US will usually not play it for the event barring special circumstances.  Of course, if the USSR plays Shuttle Diplomacy (and it usually will, since there are far worse US events to be sending to space), then there is no reason for the US not to take advantage of it.

Generally, the USSR will keep some combination of Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia (optional).  As long as they can take (or hang onto) one of the western Mideast battlegrounds (often Egypt/Libya, sometimes Israel), they should score an easy Domination.  Control is difficult but not entirely out of reach.

The US goal is to survive.  This is much easier if they had already stolen Libya in the Early War: so long as Sadat comes out before Middle East Scoring, they only need one more battleground to stop Domination.

Late War

Muslim Revolution and OPEC are likely to strike again, but this time can be prevented with AWACS Sales to Saudis and North Sea Oil, two mediocre events made somewhat good by their indirect effect on the Middle East.  Nevertheless, the USSR is likely to continue dominating the region, one of their few bright spots in a world tilting heavily towards the US.  Iranian Hostage Crisis, Marine Barracks Bombing, and maybe Iran-Iraq War add a little fuel to the fire, but generally they only slam the door shut on the US rather than leading to any cataclysmic change in the region.

Posted in Early War, Neutral Events, Regions | Tagged | 14 Comments

Nasser

Posted on February 6, 2012 by theory

NasserNasser

1954-1970

One of the giants in the Pan-Arab movement, Gamal Abdel Nasser rose to power through military coup. Attempting to steer an independent course during the Cold War, he provoked western governments by accepting Soviet aid, and nationalizing commercial property—the Suez Canal being the most prominent example. Egypt, under his leadership, was viewed as a Soviet client, and would serve as a Russian proxy during repeated wars with Israel. He died in office after 18 years of service, having frustrated the attempts of a variety of domestic and international enemies.

Time: Early War
Side: USSR
Ops: 1
Removed after event: Yes

As USSR

The rare Early War starred event that is actually quite worth playing by the USSR.  Nasser delivers to you a critical battleground and access to Libya, which ordinarily takes too long to get to.  The best use of this event is before the US has had a chance to put 2 into Egypt, because then it will cut the US off from Libya and essentially gain you two battlegrounds.

If Nasser isn’t important — either because you got into Egypt via a coup or the US has locked up both Egypt and Libya — then the normal rules about preserving your starred events apply.  No need to use this if you could potentially give the US a headache and counter the effects of Sadat Expels Soviets.  This isn’t to say that you shouldn’t fight for Eygpt: the Middle East will be scored quite a bit, and you don’t want to miss out on Egypt/Libya battlegrounds if you don’t have to.

As US

Nasser means you lose Egypt for the Early War.  But there’s no reason to lose Libya as well.  Accept the loss of Egypt and bide your time waiting for Sadat Expels Soviets.  In the meantime, make sure you can get to Libya and secure it. Put 2 into Egypt, so that even if the USSR plays Nasser you’re not completely out of Egypt and have at least one AR where Egypt is 1/2 rather than 0/2.  This allows you to either control Libya or retake Egypt.

If you drew Nasser, his best use is probably on the final AR, after having locked up Libya: you use Nasser and put Egypt to 1/2.  Now the USSR has three options: 1) coup Egypt, 2) coup elsewhere, 3) control Egypt.  No matter what, you end up getting an advantage somewhere: you save a more important country from being couped, you get to retake Egypt, or you get to coup.  It’s a variant on the typical break-USSR-control-on-final-AR play.

Posted in Early War, USSR Events | Tagged | 4 Comments

Annotated Game #1: Late War

Posted on January 30, 2012 by theory

This is Part III of a three-part series. Part I, the Early War, can be found here; Part II, the Mid War, can be found here.

Continue reading →

Posted in Annotated Games | 22 Comments

Annotated Game #1: Mid War

Posted on January 30, 2012 by theory

This is Part II of a three-part series. Part I, the Early War, can be found here; Part III, the Late War, can be found here.
Continue reading →

Posted in Annotated Games | 23 Comments

Annotated Game #1: Early War

Posted on January 30, 2012 by theory

This is an analysis of a game against a strong opponent where the US emerges triumphant despite poor luck and no influence adjustment.  Contrary to popular opinion, it is my firm belief that between experienced players, the Deluxe Edition of Twilight Struggle is adequately balanced with Optional cards and no additional adjustments. And although luck shapes the course of the game—sometimes unevenly—it is exceedingly rare that bad luck cannot be overcome with skillful play.

The game is played on Wargameroom. Optional cards are included. The save game itself can be downloaded here, if you wish to replay the game on Wargameroom.  As an alternative, there is a complete record of play here as well.

Because this is such a long game, this post has been split into three sections.  Part I, the Early War, is published below.  Part II, the Mid War, can be found here; Part III, the Late War, can be found here.

Continue reading →

Posted in Annotated Games | 28 Comments

Comecon

Posted on January 24, 2012 by theory

Comecon

Comecon

1949–1991

The Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECON) was founded in reaction to the allure of the Marshall Plan to the Soviet satellites in Eastern Europe. While very loosely organized and dominated by the Soviets in its early years, COMECON would ultimately fulfill the role of trade liberalization and industrial rationalization for Eastern Europe.

Time: Early War
Side: USSR
Ops: 3
Removed after event: Yes

As USSR

About this event’s only use is the Turn 1 Comecon Trap.  As described here, a proper opening setup + headline of Comecon combo allows a AR1 realignment of both West Germany and Italy at +1.  It’s risky and prone to US counterplay in Austria, but with a little bit of luck can eliminate the US from continental Europe entirely.

Aside from this edge case, I always play Comecon for Ops.  The 4 influence is so scattered and usually so irrelevant that I have never seen any competent USSR player play this for the event.  It’s still nice to have around in the Late War if you come under Chernobyl in Europe, but it’s no Warsaw Pact.

When the US plays it, my targets for influence, in descending order, are: Poland, East Germany, Yugoslavia (assuming I opened with 4 EGER / 4 POL / 1 YUG), and Czechoslovakia (to defend against eventual Tear Down This Wall realignments).  But it’s mostly moot, since this influence will probably get De-Stalinized anyway.

As US

This is basically a free 3 Ops card.  I suppose you could hold off on playing this until after De-Stalinization, but harmless 3 Ops cards are hard to come by as US in the Early War.

The one interaction of note is with Eastern European Unrest.  Against a greedy USSR player who does not overprotect East Germany and Poland, you might consider headlining Eastern European Unrest and threaten a costly Europe Scoring.  This play does not work if you play Comecon first.

Posted in Early War, USSR Events | Tagged | 7 Comments

Arab-Israeli War

Posted on January 16, 2012 by theory

Arab-Israeli War

Arab-Israeli War

1948–49, 1956, 1967, 1968-1970, 1973, 1982

The State of Israel was virtually born of war. After the end of the British mandate, Israel was thrust into conflict with its Arab neighbors. Israel prevailed in all such wars, excepting its invasion of Lebanon in 1982, from which it ultimately had to withdraw. Arab success was nearly achieved during the surprise attacks of the Yom Kippur War, however these too ultimately failed. While superpower intervention was frequently threatened on both sides, ultimately success or failure in the conflicts rode upon the relative capabilities of Arab and Israeli militaries.

Time: Early War
Side: USSR
Ops: 2
Removed after event: No

As USSR

On the Turn 1 headline, this has a 50/50 shot of eliminating the US from the Middle East entirely if your subsequent Iran coup is successful.  So it’s a 50/50 Suez Crisis, with the added benefit of 2VP and 1 influence in Israel if you succeed.  That makes it one of the better candidates for the USSR Turn 1 headline.

During Turn 1, a decent US player is going to take Jordan / Lebanon before investing in Israel.  (Egypt is also a good choice, but it will probably eventually fall to Nasser.)  So it’s nice to take those Israel-neighboring countries first, before the US can, so that you can wield the threat of Arab-Israeli War to keep the US from the only Middle East battleground not susceptible to Muslim Revolutions.

If the US does manage to solidify Jordan/Lebanon, this event is best played for Ops.  If you’re under Red Scare / Purge, maybe you would consider triggering the event, just for the Mil Ops, but the odds aren’t in your favor to actually win.

As US

This is not much of a threat if you draw it.  Israel is expensive enough that it is usually the last battleground in the Middle East to see any play anyway.  So when you play Arab-Israeli War early on, there’s usually not much influence at stake.  As long as you manage to get out of Israel before this event is played, even if you lose the War, it’s not a huge deal.  Accordingly, Arab-Israeli War is one of the few events where you’ll often see the opponent’s event triggered after the Operations are conducted.  Simply use the card to place 1 into Lebanon and 1 into Jordan or Egypt, and you will be fine.

Posted in Early War, USSR Events | Tagged | 13 Comments

Romanian Abdication

Posted on January 2, 2012 by theory

Romanian AbdicationRomanian Abdication

1947

King Michael I, a westernized monarch, was forced to abdicate his throne at gunpoint. Romania was thereafter declared a democratic socialist republic. After the death of its first communist leader, Gheorghiu-Dej, Romania was ruled by Nicolae Ceausescu, second only to Stalin in cruelty to his own people.

Time: Early War
Side: USSR
Ops: 1
Removed after event: Yes

As USSR

An unimportant event.  No decent US player contests Romania, and so this card is always played for Ops.  Occasionally it might be headlined, if you’re deathly afraid of Defectors and have nothing better to dump, or if you need a European non-battleground ASAP.

The only thing to keep an eye out for is Independent Reds.  You’ll almost always want to trigger Independent Reds first rather than give the US 3 influence in a country bordering the USSR.  This is especially true if Truman Doctrine is not out, since the US would have the option of playing to take Romania and +1VP each time Europe Scoring comes out.

As US

I’m happy to play this as soon as I can, so that Independent Reds can be merely situational instead of worthless.  Although the Romania Abdication/Independent Reds/Truman Doctrine combo is nice, it’s not worth it to pursue it on your own.  If you play Romanian Abdication, and the USSR plays Independent Reds later, then hey, why not Truman away the 3 influence for Romania.  But it’s otherwise not worth 3 Ops and 2 Action Rounds to score +1 VP on Europe Scoring.

Posted in Early War, USSR Events | Tagged | 3 Comments

Korean War

Posted on December 25, 2011 by theory

Korean WarKorean War

1950–53

Sparked by a North Korean invasion across the 38th parallel, the Korean War would be the first war sanctioned by the United Nations. There were 15 nations beyond the US and South Korea with combat forces attempting to defend South Korean independence. MacArthur’s campaign to the Yalu River provoked a Chinese response that reset the war to its starting positions on the 38th parallel.

Time: Early War
Side: USSR
Ops: 2
Removed after event: Yes

As USSR

This is one of those cards that is more effective as a threat than if actually played.  Korean War only gets worse for you as time goes on.  So although you do want to hold the threat of it over the US’s head, unlike Blockade, you can’t afford to punt it away on Turn 3 and hope for a late-game Korea flip, since by that time Japan and Taiwan will almost certainly have been filled up.

Given the importance of South Korea, try to take it without needing to chance the Korean War event — ideally with a 4Ops directly.  If you can’t spare a 4Ops card, you can just stick in 2 Ops to bring it to 1/2.  If the US counters to the point where you can’t win an Ops war, you can trigger Korean War for a decent chance at stealing the country.  Usually, though, the US player is sufficiently scared of Korean War that it won’t contest South Korea, and then you can just go ahead and use the 2 Ops of the War to take South Korea outright.

As US

You usually want to play Korean War as fast as you can.  South Korea is critical to your chances in Asia, and you can’t keep the threat of the card looming around forever.  Sooner or later, the Korean War is going to happen, and you’re better off triggering it earlier than later; when played at 1/0, if you win, you get South Korea to 3/0, and if you lose, you can bring it to 2/1.

Unlike Arab-Israeli War or Indo-Pakistani War, it is not worth it to build up South Korea’s neighbors before risking Korean War.  Building up Japan and Taiwan is a huge waste of Early War Ops, and in the case of Japan, might be totally wasted (given US/Japan Mutual Defense Pact).

If you don’t draw Korean War, you’re in a difficult position.  Typically, I’ll drop at least 1 influence into South Korea so that the USSR can’t take it with a 4 Ops card, and then after US/Japan comes out or the USSR is tempted into using Korean War for Ops elsewhere, I’ll take over South Korea.

Posted in Early War, USSR Events | Tagged | 6 Comments

Blockade

Posted on December 19, 2011 by theory

BlockadeBlockade

1948–49

The Soviets attempted to increase pressure on the Western allies to dissuade them from creating an independent “West” German government in their zones. The primary pressure point was a blockade of West Berlin. In response, the UK and US launched the Berlin Airlift, which at its peak during the “Easter Parade,” had a cargo plane landing in Berlin every minute.

Time: Early War
Side: USSR
Ops: 1
Removed after event: Yes

As USSR

Every USSR player is entranced by Blockade and the opportunity to take over Europe‘s most stable battleground.  But most play it poorly.  Beginner USSR players will do things like headline Blockade or play it in the middle of a turn.  Better USSR players play Blockade slightly better (e.g., on their final Action Round), but still poorly.

Strong USSR players know that strong US players do not forget about Blockade, and so will either play it for Ops and let Blockade come back later in the game (maybe the US will forget about it then?), play Blockade when US is Purged (which is very strong, because there are no Soviet 4Ops events in the Early War), or count the Early War cards and play Blockade only when US has no more high cards.

Very strong USSR players know that strong US players try to hold either Decolonization or De-Stalinization until Turn 3.  Therefore, they play Blockade on Turn 1-2 to cut the US handsize and therefore force them to discard Decolonization or De-Stalinization before Turn 3, so that they come back before Turn 7.

As US

Always have a 3 Ops USSR event on hand until Blockade is gone!  If the USSR punts it away on Turns 1-2, you have no choice but to be wary of Blockade throughout the Mid War.  Accordingly, even if you get the chance to send Blockade to space (via Containment) or play it with UN Intervention, it’s often better to just trigger the event so you don’t have to worry.

If you draw Blockade, it’s usually not a problem to deal with.  If you have no 3Ops or higher card (maybe you were Red Scared?), Blockade is going to be your hold card, and you’re going to like it.  As above, it’s important to note that if you do draw Blockade with De-Stalinization or Decolonization before Turn 3, you simply won’t have the ability to hold those cards until Turn 3 without playing the China card.  So you’ll usually have no choice but to discard De-Stalinization or Decolonization before the Turn 3 reshuffle.

If you must trigger Blockade and you have no card to discard to it, then make it an AR7 play (AR6, technically, in this case), which will help mitigate the damage.  And who knows, maybe you’ll be in luck and the USSR will play Containment and you can either space Blockade or discard a 2Ops card.

Riku Riekkinen suggests that if you have Blockade and Decolonization or De-Stalinization in your hand on Turn 1, then you should consider an opening setup that leaves West Germany empty.  The goal is to be able to play Blockade without discarding any cards, thereby allowing you to hold Decolonization/De-Stalinization until Turn 3.  With an empty West Germany, the USSR is forced to choose between couping Iran (and allowing the US to play into West Germany with Blockade on AR1 without discarding any cards), or taking West Germany (and allowing the US into Afghanistan). A good example of this play can be seen in Annotated Game #2.

Posted in Early War, USSR Events | Tagged | 24 Comments